Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Revised comments posted to Facebook VOA web page June 22, 2011

Egyptians revolted for better government, the end of cronyism, and equal opportunity for economic advancement. True success requires everyone to realize that the old established mentalities must change. Above all, the time and mental adjustment needed to provide solutions that the various old and new power bases can agree upon is very short. The method needed to kick start such dramatic change is to take the goals of the revolution and add one more key requirement. Egypt, Tunisia, the Libyan rebels, Jordan and the Palestinians need to realize that the most effective solution to all their current problems, reset the mindset of all involved and to move forward is to start now to create one unified country. The decision should be to hold off elections until the possibility of a constitutional framework can be created to accommodate just an expanded sovereign state. The fundamental problems of Egypt today are basically the same as the other four. Egyptians and Tunisians joining the Libyan rebels would provide a local self directed solution to that current conflict. Having Palestinians join with the other 4 nationalities in the creation of one new single sovereign people would perhaps go a long way towards finding a lasting solution to that decades old debacle. Key early decisions such as being a constitutional monarchy, perhaps the first Prime Minister being a Palestinian, the national capital at Al Bayda Libya and a Tunisian as the head of the armed forces are what are going to be needed to make it all truly work. Solutions to current problems then begin to appear almost at once. Send Egyptian police to Libya, Jordan etc to be replace by their counterparts from those areas. The same is true of military personnel from western Libya. A quick effective solution for dealing with all local retribution desires while returning the rule of law to much of the region. For all of the various factions from all the countries to come together to form a constitution agreeable to all would, in my mind, create the sort of document and ideals needed to indeed move forward. I think the idea of the Egyptian, Jordanian, Tunisian et al military elite would jump at the chance to create a single much larger, more effective land, sea and air power. This could shift their primary focus but still allow them to monitor and support civilian rule to take hold. The business elite? The possible end to military and political strife throughout the united country would provide investment and business opportunities only dreamed of in the past. One single common market, currency and freedom of movement would provide job opportunities for millions. And importantly at a rapid pace. Even the promise of such a united country might also provide the Syrians with a viable alternative to the Assad family and the uncertainty of what would replace such a regime. Again the ability to move government and military workers to other parts of the expanded country could again defuse what would otherwise be a long and protracted cycle of retribution. Finally it would provide a completely new dynamic to the goals of a Palestinian/Israeli peace initiative. Tinkering with land swaps on both sides of the 1967 line could include instead the provision to swap for everything below the 30th parallel to a newly united country. A single metroplex comprised of Taba, Eilat and Aqaba as a transportation and tourist hub is but one glimpse of the possibilities provided by a newly unified country. The amount of Israelis below the 30th and the fact it is not predominately a part of old Israeli history is a plus. Peer pressure to join with not one but 4 distinct societies to form 1 new one would be hard for the Palestinians to ignore. The integration of the Palestinians into the newly defined single greater nationality and the adapting to the long term goals of the greater good could dramatically alter many of the sticking points so long debated on both sides. Such a united country would also, by sheer numbers, need to establish religious freedom for all and mean it. The opportunity for the Muslim Brotherhood to unite as one across the entire area and to have meaningful participation would most likely bring them on board such an idea and for better or worse indeed facilitate the speed of implimenting the idea. The promise such an enlarged and newly peaceful country and the economic expansion it could provide would also divert millions from focusing on opportunities long denied to the new possibilities in dozens of cities and towns throughout the new country. The most important reason to push for such a solution is again the one first mentioned. It would be a quick and decisive signal that the old regimes, power bases and unequal opportunities were a thing of the past and that everyone was going to need everyone else to indeed rethink, redefine and embrace who they really are and what their true goals are to deliver on the promises of the Arab Spring. It is not looking back through the eyes of someone in January 2012 and seeing if it was a success. It is looking back through the eyes of someone in 2062 and saying this is what changed it all for millions upon millions throughout not only the Arab world but other parts of the entire world as well. Each country in the region owes much of what has happened individually, not to just themselves, but to that common good throughout the region. Don't miss the opportunity to understand and embrace the power of the entire common good.

Comment by me posted June 21, 2011, CNN World

Egyptians revolted for better government, the end of cronyism, and equal opportunity for economic advancement. It requires everyone to realize that the old established mentalities must change. Above all, the time and mental adjustment needed to provide solutions that the various old and new power bases can agree upon is very short. The method needed to kick start such dramatic change is to take the goals of the revolution and add one more key requirement. Egypt, Tunisia, the Libyan rebels, Jordan and the Palestinians need to realize that the most effective solution to all their current problems and to reset the mindset of all involved to move forward is to start now to create one unified country. Egyptians and Tunisians joining the Libyan rebels would provide a local self directed solution to that current conflict. Having Palestinians join with the other 4 nationalities in the creation of one new single sovereign people would perhaps go a long way towards finding a lasting solution to that decades old debacle. A single, much enlarged country would provide a great solution to the inability of the police to act. Key early decisions such as being a constitutional monarchy, perhaps the first Prime Minister being a Palestinian, the national capital at Al Bayda Libya and a Tunisian as the head of the armed forces are what are going to be needed to make it all truly work. Send Egyptian police to Libya, Jordan etc to be replace by their counterparts from those areas. The same is true of military personnel from western Libya. For all of the various factions from all the countries to come together to form a constitution agreeable to all would, in my mind, create the sort of document and ideals needed to indeed move forward. I think the idea of the Egyptian, Jordanian, Tunisian et al military elite would jump and the chance to create a single much larger, more effective entity. This could allow them to monitor but support civilian rule to take hold. The business elite? The possible end to military and political strife throughout the united country would provide investment and business opportunities only dreamed of in the past. One single common market, currency and freedom of movement would provide job opportunities for millions. And importantly at a rapid pace. Even the promise of such a united country might also provide the Syrians with a viable alternative to the Assad family and the uncertainty of what would replace such a regime. Again the ability to move government and military workers to other parts of the expanded country could again defuse what would otherwise be a long and protracted cycle of retribution. Finally it would provide a completely new dynamic to the goals of a Palestinian/Israeli peace initiative. Tinkering with land swaps on both sides of the 1967 line could include instead the provision to swap for everything below the 30th parallel to a newly united country. A single metroplex comprised of Taba, Eilat and Aqaba as a transportation and tourist hub is but one glimpse of the possibilities provided by a newly unified country. The amount of Israelis below the 30th and the fact it is not predominately a part of old Israeli history is a plus. The integration of the Palestinians into the newly defined long term goals and aspirations of the changed country could dramatically alter many of the sticking points so long debated on both sides. Such a united country would also, by sheer numbers, need to establish religious freedom for all and mean it. The opportunity for the Muslim Brotherhood to united as one across the entire area and to have meaningful participation would most likely bring them on board such an idea. The promise such an enlarged and newly peaceful country and the economic expansion it could provide would also divert millions from focusing on opportunities long denied to the new possibilities in dozens of cities and towns throughout the country. The most important reason to push for such a solution is again the one first mentioned. It would be a quick and decisive signal that the old regimes, power bases and unequal opportunities were a thing of the past and that everyone was going to need everyone else to indeed move forward to deliver on the promises of the Arab Spring. It is not looking back through the eyes of someone in January 2012 and seeing if it was a success. It is someone looking back through the eyes of someone in 2062 and saying this is what changed it all for millions upon millions throughout not only the Arab world but indeed the entire world.

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

A modified response posted on CNN

It is my position the the Arab Spring is potentially the greatest chance for peace in the entire region in decades.
It is indeed the "Arab" Spring not the Tunisian Spring or the Egyptian Spring nor even the Syrian Spring. In every country the long term goals are primarily two. Greater political freedom and greater economic opportunities for millions of unemployed. As it stands now some countries are on the edge of being able to deliver on the promise of the first. As for the second, substantial economic progress, this is currently a distant goal at best for all countries involved. As long as their is no clear idea of what the endgame will be in Libya, Palestine and Syria, there will never be the investment needed to fulfill the needs of those countries as well as Egypt and Tunisia. Thus the "Arab" Spring is in danger of being still born. There is also the reality that the major parties on both sides of these "revolutions" are going to have to make peace to make any progress going forward. Not an easy task. The solution to this problem may also be Israels chance to solve it's long standing impasse with the Palestinians.
The only way any one country involved in the Arab Spring will be able to deliver dramatically on BOTH goals demanded of their citizens is for all those countries to become one.
Tunisia needs to vote to join the Libyan rebels, not as allies, but as fellow long term countrymen. The same is true for Egypt. Together the first step can be reached. A non NATO led liberation of the three as one. A gesture such as agreeing to put the combined capital of the three in Al Bayda Libya is the type of compromise needed time and time again going forward. However, the ability to also transfer various members of armed forces, civil servants and such to other parts of the combined country will ease tensions among the recently warring parties for years to come. The combined economic expertise, natural resource revenues and large potential domestic markets for goods, backed by direct foreign investment should spur growth as never before in the combined region.
Just as countless Arab governments have for millennium, the drafting of outside leadership to come and rule a country as capable but neutral parties could rarely be needed more than in this case.
Thus, while not in anywhere near the brink of chaos as it's neighbors, the obvious choices to lead the newly formed combined countries, and indeed to join the new entity would be King Abdullah II of Jordan and the likes of Munib R. Masri of Palestine as the original Prime Minister could form the type of government needed to both provide long term stability as a constitutional monarchy but also with a leader of government respected throughout the entire combined countries of the region.
The over riding theme of the unification is the willingness of each national sovereign nation to re identify themselves as members of a new country for the good of the common whole. The new theme of "I am doing this not only for me but for the good of countless millions of fellow countrymen so that I might provide political and economic equality for myself and my extended family and tribe" has not had such an opportunity for perhaps decades. Which leads, if one has not already surmised, the unique opportunity to bring millions of Palestinians to the same goal. "If we wish a better life we are now Libyans (or whatever the agreed upon name) and Arabs and we have a chance to move forward under new leadership to create a new future for ourselves and our future generations". Thus a united Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Jordan and Palestine could become the model for other "endgames" to other nations of not only the Arab world but for sub Saharan Africa and other regions of the world.

The "Promise" of the Arab Spring for Israeli/ Palestinian peace.

It is my position the the Arab Spring is potentially the greatest chance for peace in the entire region in decades.
It is indeed the "Arab" Spring not the Tunisian Spring or the Egyptian Spring nor even the Syrian Spring. In every country the long term goals are primarily two. Greater political freedom and greater economic opportunities for millions of unemployed. As it stands now some countries are on the edge of being able to deliver on the promise of the first. As for the second, substantial economic progress, this is currently a distant goal at best for all countries involved. As long as their is no clear idea of what the endgame will be in Libya, Palestine and Syria, there will never be the investment needed to fulfill the needs of those countries as well as Egypt and Tunisia. Thus the "Arab" Spring is in danger of being still born. There is also the reality that the major parties on both sides of these "revolutions" are going to have to make peace to make any progress going forward. Not an easy task. The solution to this problem may also be Israels chance to solve it's long standing impasse with the Palestinians.
The only way any one country involved in the Arab Spring will be able to deliver dramatically on both goals demanded of their citizens is for all those countries to become one.
Tunisia needs to vote to join the Libyan rebels, not as allies, but as fellow long term countrymen. The same is true for Egypt. Together the first step can be reached. A non NATO led liberation of the three. A gesture such as agreeing to put the combined capital of the three in Al Bayda Libya is the type of compromise needed time and time again going forward. However, the ability to also transfer various members of armed forces, civil servants and such to other parts of the combined country will ease tensions among the recently warring parties for years to come. The combined economic expertise, natural resource revenues and large potential domestic markets for goods, backed by direct foreign investment should spur growth as never before in the combined region.
This brings me to your neighborhood. Just as countless Arab governments have for millennium, the drafting of outside leadership to come and rule a country as capable but neutral parties could rarely be needed more than in this case.
Thus, while not in anywhere near the brink of chaos as it's neighbors, the obvious choices to lead the newly formed combined countries, and indeed to join the new entity would be King Abdullah II of Jordan and the likes of Munib R. Masri as the original Prime Minister could form the type of government needed to both provide long term stability as a constitutional monarchy but with a leader of government respected throughout the entire combined countries of the region.
The over riding theme of the unification is the willingness of each national sovereign nation to re identify themselves as members of a new country for the good of the common whole. The new theme of I am doing this not only for me but for the good of countless millions of fellow countrymen so that I might provide political and economic equality for myself and my extended family and tribe has not had such an opportunity for perhaps decades. Which leads, if one has not already surmised, the unique opportunity to bring millions of Palestinians to the same goal. If we wish a better life we are now Libyans (or whatever the agreed upon name) and Arabs and we have a chance to move forward under new leadership to create a new future for ourselves and our future generations.
Issues that have been front and center for decades in the debate between Israel and the Palestinians might take on a whole new set of different needs of a United Arab Kingdom.
For one the need to ensure peace on the Arab side for political and economic growth nationwide would allow Israel to find a willing partner in policing extreme factions within the new borders.
Both Hamas and Fatah as greatly reduced political entities within a nation of 100 million is all so obvious. A United Arab Kingdom could also provide the blueprint for possible exit strategies for other countries throughout the entire Arab and perhaps even sub Saharan Africa conflicts.
What is not so obvious is perhaps the need of a Greater United Arab Kingdom to need to consider entirely different land swaps and much greater region wide agreements on the use of water and other natural resources.
Of course Israel as a nation cannot promote directly the idea of perhaps a United Arab Kingdom but it has enough ears in enough parts of the world to let it be known that such a direction in thinking by all of its neighbors to such an idea would be surely welcome. If you really want to see secular, democratic and economically viable peaceful neighbors not only as your direct neighbors but through the entire region, to envision that they are all one unified national neighbor might just be your best bet for long lasting peace for generations to come. Just a thought.